Assessing Renewable Energy Impact in Nordic-Baltic Region: Sensitivity Analysis and MCDM Approach

Abstract

The article aims to analyze the development of renewable energy in the Nordic-Baltic countries using the MCDM methods. The analysis was conducted on eight alternatives (Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia) and ten criteria (primary energy consumption, energy intensity, final energy consumption, share of energy from renewable sources, renewable energy source in transport, share of fossil fuels in final energy consumption, energy productivity, imports of solid fossil fuels by partner country, electricity prices for household consumers, GDP per capita). The improved entropy method was used to determine the criterion weights, and the PIV method was used to rank the alternatives. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis was applied to test the robustness of the model. The impact of 34 different variations in criterion weights on the results was examined and the smallest weight change required to alter the current ranking is 18.93%. The findings demonstrate that Norway emerges as the most appropriate alternative, while Lithuania ranks last. It has been determined that countries that invest the most in renewable energy are ranked at the top. It has been concluded that the obtained results are entirely objective and rational, and the applied model is applicable in the field of renewable energy.