Relationship between Economic Growth External Debt: Application to Turkey

Abstract

In this study, the effects of foreign debt on economic growth in Turkey’s economy are investigated with contemporary time-series techniques for 1970-2016 periods. In the study, the stationarity of the series is examined by ADF and PP unit root tests and the series were found to be stationary at different levels. The existence of cointegration relationship between the series is examined by the Bounds Testing method and it is determined that external debt and economic growth move together in the long run. In the long-run analysis carried out by ARDL method, it is found that 1% increase in fixed capital stock, labor force, external debt stock and human capital enhance national income by 0.31, 0.27, 0.13 and 0.46%, respectively. Error correction mechanism of the model operates, that is, the outcomes are reliable. Causality relationships between the series are examined by TodaYamamoto causality test and it is found that one-way causality relationships exist from labor and external debt to economic growth. Also in this test; one-way causality relationships are found from the labor force to the fixed capital stock and human capital and from the external debt stock to the human capital.