Determination of the best Weibull methods for wind power assessment in the southern region of Turkey

Abstract

In this study, wind energy potential in the South of Turkey was investigated statistically by using the Turkish State Meteorological Service's hourly wind speed data between 2009 and 2013. The wind data used in this study were gathered from the Meteorology Station in Hatay and Osmaniye. In this study, different numerical methods were analysed and their performances were compared for effectiveness in determining the shape 'k' and scale 'c' parameters of the Weibull distribution function for two different regions. Six different methods: namely, graphical method, empirical method, maximum likelihood method, energy trend method, energy pattern method and moment method were used to estimate the Weibull parameters. The following statistical indicators were used for comparing the efficiency of all the methods used: the root mean square error, analysis of variance (R-2) and mean percentage error. Wind power densities were also calculated for all numerical methods used in this study. The power density is the key issue for the suitable use of wind energy. The calculated power densities for all methods used were compared with wind power density derived from measured wind data for two regions.